Make participants think about possible futures, as well as stimulate creative and forward thinking.
Scenario planning uses stories of what could happen in the future with diverse stakeholders in order to decide jointly how they want to influence the future. It
motivates people to challenge the status quo, or get better at doing so, by asking “What if?” Asking “What if?” in a disciplined way allows participants to rehearse the
possibilities of tomorrow, and then to take action today, empowered by those provocations and insights.
- Step 1: The issue at stake has to be clarified. This can be based on the explorative tools, which participants may have already carried out, including a detailed picture and stakeholder analysis and an institutional analysis.
- Step 2: Synthesizing the driving forces. What are the implications (issues and opportunities) of the driving forces for the different actors?
- Step 3: Prioritize the driving forces
- Step 4: Make the ‘scenario matrix’ based on the two identified driving forces, and the ‘critical uncertainties’.
- Step 5: Reflect on the four scenarios and discuss their implications for the MSP.
Detailed preparations at http://www.mspguide.org/tool/scenario-planning
A regular scenario planning will last for 2-3 days. The above 3-hour session should be regarded as an introduction only, for situations in which 2-3 days are not available.